Has China's Power Peaked?, A Debate
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English

Originally released by Intelligence Squared US, 2023.

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Since China's communist government began opening the country to capitalist investment and development in the 1980s, China has become an industrial powerhouse, rivaling the United States in manufacturing output and economic might. In 2000, China's gross domestic product—the total amount of goods and services a nation produces—was just 12 percent that of the United States. By the early 2020s, this figure had risen to 77 percent. China has also expanded its military and increased its role in global affairs, leading many observers to call the 2000s "the Chinese century." Indeed, some predict that as China continues to invest heavily in infrastructure, technology, and defense, it will overtake the United States as the world's dominant economic and military superpower. But others question whether China can maintain this phenomenal growth and upward trajectory. Its zero-COVID policy jolted the nation in the early 2020s and exposed major supply chain vulnerabilities within its technology sector, they note, and the Chinese system is facing significant economic headwinds, a slowing pace of innovation, and a heavy debt burden. China's problematic demographic profile—a low fertility rate coupled with an aging population—could reduce the size of its workforce, they argue, and create mounting frustrations among its younger people. These pressures, they contend, could challenge the nation's autocratic, communist government, undermine the Chinese economy, and force the country to retrench. Has China's power peaked?

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